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Barclays analysts have warned that U.S. stocks could face significant declines if proposed tariffs are fully implemented, raising recession risks. They project a potential 9.4% decline in earnings per share for the S&P 500 excluding tech by 2025, worse than previous estimates. Historical data suggests that non-recessionary bear markets typically see a 25% drawdown, while full recessions average a 42% decline.
HSBC, Natwest, and Barclays shares have seen significant declines as the FTSE 350 bank index dropped nearly six percent, losing over 10 percent in the past five days. Analysts anticipate continued volatility in share prices, influenced by tariff wars and their indirect effects on UK financial fundamentals, including economic growth and inflation.
Elon Musk lost $11 billion following President Trump's tariff announcement, bringing his total losses in 2025 to over $110 billion. Other billionaires, including Jeff Bezos and Mark Zuckerberg, faced even steeper declines, with losses of $15.9 billion and $17.9 billion, respectively. The stock market reacted sharply, with the S&P 500 dropping 4.8% and fears of a recession looming as tariffs impact economic growth and inflation.
U.S. GDP growth is projected to be below 1% for the year, with tariffs potentially adding 2 percentage points to consumer prices, prompting the Federal Reserve to consider rate cuts of 75 to 100 basis points in 2025. European growth may slow by 50 to 100 basis points due to tariffs, while retaliatory measures could create short-term inflationary pressures, though the long-term effect is expected to be disinflationary. In Asia, growth is anticipated to drop to 4.0% or less in 2025, particularly affecting trade-driven economies like North Asia, Thailand, Malaysia, and Singapore.
UBS has warned that the outlook for U.S. steel stocks, including Nucor Corporation and Steel Dynamics, is dimming due to new tariffs announced by President Trump, which include a 10% increase effective April 5 and additional tariffs of 10-50% starting April 9. While steel products remain under a 25% tariff and Canada and Mexico are exempt, the new tariffs are expected to negatively impact demand and economic growth, with GDP growth predictions between 1.5-2% and inflation nearing 5% if not rolled back. The exemptions limit potential price increases for U.S. hot-rolled coil, as Canadian and Mexican imports represent about 55% of 2024 HRC imports.
President Trump has announced new tariffs, including a 10 percent increase for all countries starting April 5, with additional counter-tariffs for 185 countries effective April 9. UBS warns that these tariffs could negatively impact US steel stocks, with Nucor Corporation and Steel Dynamics, Inc. seeing declines of 2-3 percent. While Canada and Mexico are exempt from these tariffs, limiting price increases for hot-rolled coil, the overall demand is expected to suffer, projecting GDP growth between 1.5 and 2 percent and inflation nearing 5 percent if the tariffs remain.
World cocoa and coffee prices have dropped following President Trump's announcement of significant tariffs on US imports, raising concerns about demand in the largest consumer market. Key coffee producers like Vietnam and Indonesia face steep tariffs, while Brazil and cocoa-producing nations also see increased costs. The tariffs are expected to create inflationary pressures in the US and complicate import processes for roasters and traders.
Paul Donovan, chief global economist at UBS, warns that Trump's policies could hinder global growth, increase uncertainty, and drive up inflation, negatively impacting most Americans. He draws parallels to the Gilded Age, noting that while tariffs may boost profits for some U.S. companies, they ultimately harm consumers by raising prices and limiting choices.
Oil prices continued to decline in early Asian trade, heading for their worst week in months due to President Trump's new tariffs, which raised fears of a global trade war impacting oil demand. Brent futures dropped to $69.54 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $66.34. The bearish outlook was compounded by OPEC+ advancing its oil output increase plan, aiming to return 411,000 barrels per day to the market in May, which analysts believe will lead to a surplus in the oil market this year.
President Trump's new tariffs, including a 24% levy on Japan and a 25% on South Korea, could lead to significant price increases for consumers and risk igniting inflation and recession. The measures have sparked global market turmoil and prompted threats of retaliation from various countries, raising concerns over the future of international trade. Analysts warn that these tariffs may alienate allies and disrupt supply chains, while the administration claims they will bolster domestic manufacturing and create jobs.
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